Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020


000
WTNT45 KNHC 121445
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020
 
Although the cloud top temperatures across the broad comma-shaped 
convective shield have warmed this morning, there is some new 
convection that has been developing nearer to Theta's center over 
the past few hours. Unfortunately, the scatterometer passes this 
morning missed sampling the winds near the center of the cyclone. 
However, the partial ASCAT-A overpass showed that 45 kt winds are 
occurring nearly 100 n mi to the southwest of the center of Theta. 
Therefore it is assumed that stronger winds are still occurring 
closer to the center of the cyclone, and the initial intensity is 
being held at 55 kt. 

Theta has now turned to the right, and the initial motion is 080/10 
kt. For about the next 36 h, the cyclone is expected to continue 
moving just north of east around the north side of a mid-level 
ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h 
as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level 
northerly flow moves over Theta.  After 72 h, Theta or its 
remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and 
accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer 
mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest 
track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near 
the multi-model consensus tracks. 
 
The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the day or 
so, while moving over cooler waters. The counteracting effects 
should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity. By this weekend, 
strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air 
gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone 
to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by 
Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the 
guidance through 60 h, and is near the various consensus models
thereafter. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 31.6N  28.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 31.7N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 31.8N  24.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 31.8N  22.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 31.5N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 31.2N  20.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 31.1N  19.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1200Z 32.7N  19.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/1200Z 37.6N  17.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto