Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020


073 
WTNT34 KNHC 090254
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020
 
...ETA BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING 
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER 
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was 
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Eta is moving 
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A west-northwestward to 
westward motion is expected overnight, followed by a west- 
southwestward motion on Monday and Monday night with some reduction 
in forward speed. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday.  On 
the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the 
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.
 
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather 
Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds are 
near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is 
forecast during the next day or so and Eta is forecast to become a 
hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.  A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light 
in the Florida Keys recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph 
(91 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (114 km/h). An elevated station a 
Port Everglades recently reported a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h). 
Farther north a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 
54 mph (87 km/h) was reported at the Lake Worth Pier. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts 
through Friday morning:

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including 
the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated 
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated 
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated 
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), 
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be 
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. 
Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across the urban 
areas of southeast Florida. Significant flash and urban flooding 
will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of 
southern Florida.  Minor river flooding is also possible for central 
Florida. 
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the Florida Keys
tonight with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the
Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern
Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through early Monday.  Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida
tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by Monday.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday across south 
Florida and the Keys.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north 
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the 
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.  Swells will gradually 
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and 
Jamaica later today.  These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products 
from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Beven/Papin