Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020


000
WTNT34 KNHC 081755
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020
 
...ETA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), data from satellites and Cuban radars
indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near
latitude 23.5 North, longitude 79.2 West.  Eta is moving toward the
north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is forecast
to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward northwest is
expected by this evening, followed by a westward motion by early
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to
move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas this
afternoon, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early
Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and
Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Eta is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the 
Florida Keys tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past few hours, tropical-storm-force
winds gusts have been occurring all along the southeast Florida
coast.  A gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) was measured by an elevated
weather station on Ft. Lauderdale Beach, a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h)
was observed at Palm Beach International Airport and at an elevated
site at Fowey Rocks, while a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was measured
at the Boca Raton Airport. North Perry Hollywood Airport also just 
reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:
 
Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
 
Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).
 
The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
 
Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches (450 mm).
 
Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida.  Minor river flooding
is also possible for Central Florida.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the 
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by 
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could 
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated 
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early
Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in
the northwestern Bahamas through tonight.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this
afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Florida by early Monday.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.  Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart