Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020


000
WTNT41 KNHC 170844
TCDAT1
 
Hurricane Iota Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020
 
Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern 
coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover. 
Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4 
Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due 
to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been 
extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de 
Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and 
roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is 
uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto 
Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt 
(134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial 
intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening 
rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature 
still noted in infrared satellite imagery.
 
Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue 
moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone 
moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge 
located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and 
southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to 
push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its 
remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador 
in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, 
with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward 
into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is 
essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and 
closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and 
FSSE.

Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota 
moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and 
Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance.
 
Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are  
occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of 
Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still 
likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm 
surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall. 
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across 
the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a 
little less than two weeks ago.
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where
a hurricane warning is in effect.
 
2.  Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected 
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy 
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of 
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane 
Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially 
catastrophic impacts. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 13.7N  84.3W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/1800Z 13.8N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 13.8N  87.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1800Z 13.7N  89.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart